Date:
10.07.2026, 13:00-13:45
Location:
Zoom (Meeting ID: 675 8938 0001)
Language:
Englisch
Organized by:
IC D2MCM
Register here:
Not required.
Contact:
iz-d2mcm.contact@hu-berlin.de
Counterfactual density effects and the German East—West income gap
Joint Seminar Series on Digitality and Digital Methods, 10.07.2026
Speaker: Georg Keilbar (WiWiF)
Zoom: Meeting ID: 675 8938 0001
Time: 1-1:45 pm, Fridays
Host: Management team of IZ D2MCM
Contact: iz-d2mcm.contact@hu-berlin.de
Full Programm: Link to Introduction and Programm
We propose a novel framework for conducting causal inference based on counterfactual densities. While the current paradigm of causal inference is mostly focused on estimating average treatment effects (ATEs), which restricts the analysis to the first moment of the outcome variable, our density-based approach is able to detect causal effects based on general distributional characteristics. We apply our method to analyze the German East–West income gap, i.e., the observed differences in wages between East Germans and West Germans. While most of the existing studies focus on the average differences and neglect other distributional characteristics, our density-based approach is suited to detect all nuances of the counterfactual distributions, including differences in probability masses at zero.
The format consists of a 30-minute presentation followed by a 15-minute discussion. The presentations are organised via Zoom to enable broad participation. All lectures are also listed in the Event-Section of the website.